Learning From Every Market Event
Since our founding in February 2021, we have witnessed inflation spikes, interest rate upheaval, crypto collapses, banking crises, and market rallies. We have studied each event carefully.
We do not just react to markets. We study them. We learn from them. We adapt our strategies based on what we observe. This timeline shows the major events we have tracked and what we learned from each one.
2021
Our Foundation Year
OBCDian Founded
We started with a small amount of capital from family and friends, focused on learning the markets and building our research capabilities from the ground up.
What We Learned: Starting small allowed us to focus on education and process development rather than managing expectations from large outside capital.
OBCDian Founded
We started with a small amount of capital from family and friends, focused on learning the markets and building our research capabilities from the ground up.
What We Learned: Starting small allowed us to focus on education and process development rather than managing expectations from large outside capital.
Post-Pandemic Market Recovery
Markets rallied on massive fiscal and monetary stimulus. We watched how different asset classes responded to unprecedented government intervention and learned about the complexities of monetary policy.
What We Learned: Understanding that market recoveries can be driven by policy as much as fundamentals. This shaped our approach to macro analysis.
Post-Pandemic Market Recovery
Markets rallied on massive fiscal and monetary stimulus. We watched how different asset classes responded to unprecedented government intervention and learned about the complexities of monetary policy.
What We Learned: Understanding that market recoveries can be driven by policy as much as fundamentals. This shaped our approach to macro analysis.
Crypto Bull Market Peak
Bitcoin reached nearly $69,000, and the entire crypto market was in euphoria. We studied this phenomenon closely, learning about market psychology and the dangers of speculation.
What We Learned: Euphoria is a warning sign. We began developing our framework for identifying overheated markets and maintaining discipline.
Crypto Bull Market Peak
Bitcoin reached nearly $69,000, and the entire crypto market was in euphoria. We studied this phenomenon closely, learning about market psychology and the dangers of speculation.
What We Learned: Euphoria is a warning sign. We began developing our framework for identifying overheated markets and maintaining discipline.
2022
The Reality Check
Inflation Surge
Inflation hit 9.1%, a 40-year high. Food, energy, and housing costs soared. We witnessed firsthand how inflation impacts different asset classes and erodes purchasing power.
What We Learned: Reinforced our focus on real assets and understanding inflation hedges. This became a core part of our research focus.
Inflation Surge
Inflation hit 9.1%, a 40-year high. Food, energy, and housing costs soared. We witnessed firsthand how inflation impacts different asset classes and erodes purchasing power.
What We Learned: Reinforced our focus on real assets and understanding inflation hedges. This became a core part of our research focus.
Federal Reserve Rate Hikes Begin
The Fed raised rates from near-zero to 4.5% in the fastest hiking cycle in decades. We studied how rising rates impact different sectors, from tech stocks to real estate.
What We Learned: The importance of understanding monetary policy transmission mechanisms and how different assets react to changing interest rate environments.
Federal Reserve Rate Hikes Begin
The Fed raised rates from near-zero to 4.5% in the fastest hiking cycle in decades. We studied how rising rates impact different sectors, from tech stocks to real estate.
What We Learned: The importance of understanding monetary policy transmission mechanisms and how different assets react to changing interest rate environments.
Crypto Winter and Collapse
Terra/LUNA collapsed, wiping out $40 billion. Celsius, Voyager, and FTX followed. Bitcoin fell 65% from its peak. We observed the cascade of failures in the crypto ecosystem.
What We Learned: Validated our cautious approach to emerging assets. Reinforced the critical importance of counterparty risk assessment and due diligence over hype.
Crypto Winter and Collapse
Terra/LUNA collapsed, wiping out $40 billion. Celsius, Voyager, and FTX followed. Bitcoin fell 65% from its peak. We observed the cascade of failures in the crypto ecosystem.
What We Learned: Validated our cautious approach to emerging assets. Reinforced the critical importance of counterparty risk assessment and due diligence over hype.
Stock Market Bear Market
S&P 500 fell 18%, Nasdaq dropped 33%. Growth stocks were hit hardest as rising rates compressed valuations. We lived through our first real bear market as a firm.
What We Learned: The importance of risk management, diversification, and maintaining perspective during downturns. Bear markets are learning opportunities.
Stock Market Bear Market
S&P 500 fell 18%, Nasdaq dropped 33%. Growth stocks were hit hardest as rising rates compressed valuations. We lived through our first real bear market as a firm.
What We Learned: The importance of risk management, diversification, and maintaining perspective during downturns. Bear markets are learning opportunities.
2023
Adaptation and Learning
Banking Crisis
Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic collapsed within weeks. Over $500 billion in assets were at risk. We watched the rapid contagion and government response.
What We Learned: Deepened our understanding of systemic risks in the financial system and the importance of understanding bank balance sheets and liquidity risks.
Banking Crisis
Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic collapsed within weeks. Over $500 billion in assets were at risk. We watched the rapid contagion and government response.
What We Learned: Deepened our understanding of systemic risks in the financial system and the importance of understanding bank balance sheets and liquidity risks.
Housing Market Correction
Mortgage rates doubled from 3% to over 7%, crushing housing affordability. Home sales plummeted. We studied how rising rates impact housing and consumer spending.
What We Learned: Understanding the lag between interest rate changes and real economy impacts. Housing is a critical transmission mechanism for monetary policy.
Housing Market Correction
Mortgage rates doubled from 3% to over 7%, crushing housing affordability. Home sales plummeted. We studied how rising rates impact housing and consumer spending.
What We Learned: Understanding the lag between interest rate changes and real economy impacts. Housing is a critical transmission mechanism for monetary policy.
AI Investment Boom
ChatGPT launched, sparking massive AI investment. The Magnificent Seven tech stocks drove most market gains. We researched the fundamentals behind the AI revolution.
What We Learned: Technology can drive concentrated market leadership. Understanding the difference between transformative technology and market hype is essential.
AI Investment Boom
ChatGPT launched, sparking massive AI investment. The Magnificent Seven tech stocks drove most market gains. We researched the fundamentals behind the AI revolution.
What We Learned: Technology can drive concentrated market leadership. Understanding the difference between transformative technology and market hype is essential.
Inflation Peaks, Rates Hold
Fed rates reached 5.25-5.5%, the highest in 22 years. Inflation cooled from 9% to around 3%. We watched the delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding recession.
What We Learned: The lag and variable effects of monetary policy. Sometimes the right policy means accepting short-term pain for long-term stability.
Inflation Peaks, Rates Hold
Fed rates reached 5.25-5.5%, the highest in 22 years. Inflation cooled from 9% to around 3%. We watched the delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding recession.
What We Learned: The lag and variable effects of monetary policy. Sometimes the right policy means accepting short-term pain for long-term stability.
2024
Navigating Uncertainty
Geopolitical Tensions Rise
Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, trade tensions, and election uncertainty created volatility. We learned to navigate markets amid constant geopolitical headlines.
What We Learned: Geopolitical events create noise and volatility, but staying focused on fundamentals and maintaining a long-term perspective remains critical.
Geopolitical Tensions Rise
Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, trade tensions, and election uncertainty created volatility. We learned to navigate markets amid constant geopolitical headlines.
What We Learned: Geopolitical events create noise and volatility, but staying focused on fundamentals and maintaining a long-term perspective remains critical.
Market Resilience Despite High Rates
Despite rates remaining elevated, equity markets showed surprising strength. We studied how markets can adapt to new rate regimes over time.
What We Learned: Markets are forward-looking and adaptable. The importance of staying invested while managing risk, rather than trying to time markets.
Market Resilience Despite High Rates
Despite rates remaining elevated, equity markets showed surprising strength. We studied how markets can adapt to new rate regimes over time.
What We Learned: Markets are forward-looking and adaptable. The importance of staying invested while managing risk, rather than trying to time markets.
Canadian Housing Affordability Crisis
Canada faced severe housing shortages and affordability challenges. We researched housing policy, supply constraints, and demographic trends.
What We Learned: Real estate markets are deeply influenced by policy, demographics, and supply dynamics, not just interest rates.
Canadian Housing Affordability Crisis
Canada faced severe housing shortages and affordability challenges. We researched housing policy, supply constraints, and demographic trends.
What We Learned: Real estate markets are deeply influenced by policy, demographics, and supply dynamics, not just interest rates.
Rate Cut Expectations
Markets began pricing in potential Fed rate cuts as inflation continued to moderate. We studied how markets price in policy changes and the risks of being wrong.
What We Learned: Market expectations can diverge from reality. The importance of scenario planning and not being overly confident in any single outcome.
Rate Cut Expectations
Markets began pricing in potential Fed rate cuts as inflation continued to moderate. We studied how markets price in policy changes and the risks of being wrong.
What We Learned: Market expectations can diverge from reality. The importance of scenario planning and not being overly confident in any single outcome.
2025
Current Environment
Policy Uncertainty
New administration brings uncertainty around tariffs, fiscal policy, and regulatory changes. We are actively researching how policy shifts impact different sectors and asset classes.
What We Are Learning: The importance of portfolio resilience and transparent communication with stakeholders during periods of elevated uncertainty.
Policy Uncertainty
New administration brings uncertainty around tariffs, fiscal policy, and regulatory changes. We are actively researching how policy shifts impact different sectors and asset classes.
What We Are Learning: The importance of portfolio resilience and transparent communication with stakeholders during periods of elevated uncertainty.
Selective Market Strength
Some sectors are thriving while others struggle. Market leadership is narrow. We are studying the divergence and what it signals about economic health and future opportunities.
What We Are Learning: Diversification and selectivity matter more than ever. Understanding which sectors are resilient and why is critical to navigating this environment.
Selective Market Strength
Some sectors are thriving while others struggle. Market leadership is narrow. We are studying the divergence and what it signals about economic health and future opportunities.
What We Are Learning: Diversification and selectivity matter more than ever. Understanding which sectors are resilient and why is critical to navigating this environment.
Global Economic Divergence
Different regions are experiencing vastly different economic conditions. We are deepening our understanding of global macro trends and regional opportunities.
What We Are Learning: Global diversification requires understanding regional dynamics, currency risks, and how different economies are interconnected.
Global Economic Divergence
Different regions are experiencing vastly different economic conditions. We are deepening our understanding of global macro trends and regional opportunities.
What We Are Learning: Global diversification requires understanding regional dynamics, currency risks, and how different economies are interconnected.
We Are Market Students, Not Predictors
Every event on this timeline taught us something valuable about markets, risk, and human behavior. We continue to study, learn, and adapt. Our commitment is to transparency, continuous learning, and making informed decisions based on what we observe.
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