Learning From Every Market Event

Since our founding in February 2021, we have witnessed inflation spikes, interest rate upheaval, crypto collapses, banking crises, and market rallies. We have studied each event carefully.

We do not just react to markets. We study them. We learn from them. We adapt our strategies based on what we observe. This timeline shows the major events we have tracked and what we learned from each one.

2021

Our Foundation Year

OBCDian Founded

February 2021

We started with a small amount of capital from family and friends, focused on learning the markets and building our research capabilities from the ground up.

What We Learned: Starting small allowed us to focus on education and process development rather than managing expectations from large outside capital.

Post-Pandemic Market Recovery

Throughout 2021

Markets rallied on massive fiscal and monetary stimulus. We watched how different asset classes responded to unprecedented government intervention and learned about the complexities of monetary policy.

What We Learned: Understanding that market recoveries can be driven by policy as much as fundamentals. This shaped our approach to macro analysis.

Crypto Bull Market Peak

November 2021

Bitcoin reached nearly $69,000, and the entire crypto market was in euphoria. We studied this phenomenon closely, learning about market psychology and the dangers of speculation.

What We Learned: Euphoria is a warning sign. We began developing our framework for identifying overheated markets and maintaining discipline.

2022

The Reality Check

Inflation Surge

June 2022

Inflation hit 9.1%, a 40-year high. Food, energy, and housing costs soared. We witnessed firsthand how inflation impacts different asset classes and erodes purchasing power.

What We Learned: Reinforced our focus on real assets and understanding inflation hedges. This became a core part of our research focus.

Federal Reserve Rate Hikes Begin

March 2022 - December 2022

The Fed raised rates from near-zero to 4.5% in the fastest hiking cycle in decades. We studied how rising rates impact different sectors, from tech stocks to real estate.

What We Learned: The importance of understanding monetary policy transmission mechanisms and how different assets react to changing interest rate environments.

Crypto Winter and Collapse

May 2022 - November 2022

Terra/LUNA collapsed, wiping out $40 billion. Celsius, Voyager, and FTX followed. Bitcoin fell 65% from its peak. We observed the cascade of failures in the crypto ecosystem.

What We Learned: Validated our cautious approach to emerging assets. Reinforced the critical importance of counterparty risk assessment and due diligence over hype.

Stock Market Bear Market

Throughout 2022

S&P 500 fell 18%, Nasdaq dropped 33%. Growth stocks were hit hardest as rising rates compressed valuations. We lived through our first real bear market as a firm.

What We Learned: The importance of risk management, diversification, and maintaining perspective during downturns. Bear markets are learning opportunities.

2023

Adaptation and Learning

Banking Crisis

March 2023

Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic collapsed within weeks. Over $500 billion in assets were at risk. We watched the rapid contagion and government response.

What We Learned: Deepened our understanding of systemic risks in the financial system and the importance of understanding bank balance sheets and liquidity risks.

Housing Market Correction

Throughout 2023

Mortgage rates doubled from 3% to over 7%, crushing housing affordability. Home sales plummeted. We studied how rising rates impact housing and consumer spending.

What We Learned: Understanding the lag between interest rate changes and real economy impacts. Housing is a critical transmission mechanism for monetary policy.

AI Investment Boom

Throughout 2023

ChatGPT launched, sparking massive AI investment. The Magnificent Seven tech stocks drove most market gains. We researched the fundamentals behind the AI revolution.

What We Learned: Technology can drive concentrated market leadership. Understanding the difference between transformative technology and market hype is essential.

Inflation Peaks, Rates Hold

July 2023

Fed rates reached 5.25-5.5%, the highest in 22 years. Inflation cooled from 9% to around 3%. We watched the delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding recession.

What We Learned: The lag and variable effects of monetary policy. Sometimes the right policy means accepting short-term pain for long-term stability.

2024

Navigating Uncertainty

Geopolitical Tensions Rise

Throughout 2024

Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, trade tensions, and election uncertainty created volatility. We learned to navigate markets amid constant geopolitical headlines.

What We Learned: Geopolitical events create noise and volatility, but staying focused on fundamentals and maintaining a long-term perspective remains critical.

Market Resilience Despite High Rates

Throughout 2024

Despite rates remaining elevated, equity markets showed surprising strength. We studied how markets can adapt to new rate regimes over time.

What We Learned: Markets are forward-looking and adaptable. The importance of staying invested while managing risk, rather than trying to time markets.

Canadian Housing Affordability Crisis

Throughout 2024

Canada faced severe housing shortages and affordability challenges. We researched housing policy, supply constraints, and demographic trends.

What We Learned: Real estate markets are deeply influenced by policy, demographics, and supply dynamics, not just interest rates.

Rate Cut Expectations

Late 2024

Markets began pricing in potential Fed rate cuts as inflation continued to moderate. We studied how markets price in policy changes and the risks of being wrong.

What We Learned: Market expectations can diverge from reality. The importance of scenario planning and not being overly confident in any single outcome.

2025

Current Environment

Policy Uncertainty

Early 2025

New administration brings uncertainty around tariffs, fiscal policy, and regulatory changes. We are actively researching how policy shifts impact different sectors and asset classes.

What We Are Learning: The importance of portfolio resilience and transparent communication with stakeholders during periods of elevated uncertainty.

Selective Market Strength

Early 2025

Some sectors are thriving while others struggle. Market leadership is narrow. We are studying the divergence and what it signals about economic health and future opportunities.

What We Are Learning: Diversification and selectivity matter more than ever. Understanding which sectors are resilient and why is critical to navigating this environment.

Global Economic Divergence

Early 2025

Different regions are experiencing vastly different economic conditions. We are deepening our understanding of global macro trends and regional opportunities.

What We Are Learning: Global diversification requires understanding regional dynamics, currency risks, and how different economies are interconnected.

We Are Market Students, Not Predictors

Every event on this timeline taught us something valuable about markets, risk, and human behavior. We continue to study, learn, and adapt. Our commitment is to transparency, continuous learning, and making informed decisions based on what we observe.

Get in Touch